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Play Probabilities

By setherick
6/05/2023 7:48 am
Posting this with only a few notes. I'm filtering out play where I don't have play vs play data. And I'm using Jeffrey's prior for both running and passing plays, which devalues passing plays. Also, I didn't fix the script so it'll stop calculating probabilities for interceptions and sacks for running plays, so ignore that noise: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hbf9HUJS0znKSbId3oME8kWH-5rv3iV2/view?usp=sharing

Re: Play Probabilities

By Redneckgopher
6/07/2023 9:06 am
What is the criteria for big play? Sorry if its there but i cant see it. Just started to go thru it

Re: Play Probabilities

By setherick
6/07/2023 5:47 pm
Redneckgopher wrote:
What is the criteria for big play? Sorry if its there but i cant see it. Just started to go thru it


Success is 5 yards for a pass and 4 for a run.

Big play is 10 yards for either.

MFN passing is awful. Or I'd make passing 8 for success and 15 for big.
Last edited at 6/07/2023 5:47 pm